Drake equation applied to dating
Everywhere the right set of numbers turns up, intelligent life will emerge.
The Drake Equation is an attempt to think about those numbers.
The Milky Way Galaxy currently holds about 100 billion stars.
This is the only function in the Drake Equation that can be known with any degree of mathematical certainty.
The best measure of this is the ability to communicate by radio waves. What is the likelihood that such technologies will be invented?
What percentage of intelligent civilizations will never invent them, or, having invented them (at least theoretically), decide never to use any with sufficient power to broadcast radio waves out into space.
So far, with three variables accounted for, the Drake Equation suggests that one potentially life-supporting star comes into existence every four years, and that there are 25 billion candidate stars in the total history of the Milky Way Galaxy, which might plausibly have life on a nearby planet.
All of these factors go into making the climate and the surface of the Earth relatively stable.
In a young galaxy, new star births can number in the thousands per year.
In a middle-aged galaxy like our own, however, the Max Planck Institute for Astronomy says that only about one Sun-like star (not too large or small to support life) is born per year.
– Physical Variables for Life – The first set of three functions in the Drake Equation relate to the fundamental physical conditions necessary for life to develop.
R* is the number of stars which form in the galaxy per year (some variants of the equation say the total number of stars in the galaxy).